Warehouse Capacity: Is Europe Ready for Peak?

Every year, the same conversation happens during the same week of September. Someone runs the numbers on inbound volume against available pallet positions, and the answer comes back tighter than expected. Then the scramble starts.

The difference this year is that the market has less slack than it did twelve months ago, and the buffer that used to absorb a late decision is thinning out.

If your Q4 capacity plan is still a draft, this is the moment to finalise it.

Key Takeaways 

• European logistics vacancy could fall below 5% as new supply hits a nine-year low.
• Western corridors such as Brussels to Antwerp are close to full (2.33% vacancy). CEE has more room (up to about 8%) but demand is strong.
• Grid power is now a site-selection constraint, not a detail.
• Contracted space beats verbal commitments. Space secured in August costs less and offers more choice than space secured in November.

How Tight Is the European Warehouse Market Going Into Q4?

European logistics take-up has been recovering steadily. Through 2025, quarterly take-up stabilised between 5 and 6 million square metres, still below the 9.6 million square metre peak recorded in Q4 2021, but a clear improvement on a difficult 2024. Forecasts point to continued moderate growth.

The more interesting number is on the supply side. Only around 3.8% of total European logistics stock was under construction by mid-2025, and twelve-month rolling completions are expected to hit a nine-year low as the development pipeline stays muted. A growing share of completed space is already committed before it opens.

Prologis research estimates Europe needs roughly €150 billion of new logistics space just to meet current consumption levels. The forecast is that European vacancy could fall below 5% if supply pipelines stay constrained and economic growth holds, which would make Europe one of the tightest logistics markets in the world. Prologis also describes power as the new location factor in its 2026 outlook.

None of this is a cliff. It is a slow squeeze, which is precisely why it catches people out. Nothing dramatic happens until the week you need space and there is none available in the corridor where you need it.

Where Is the Pressure Concentrated: Western Europe or CEE?

The averages hide a lot. Utilisation rates remain high in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, leaving very little room for overflow inventory when peak-season volume arrives. In some Western European corridors, availability is effectively nil. Vacancy along Belgium’s Brussels-to-Antwerp corridor stood at 2.33% at the end of 2025.

Central and Eastern Europe reads differently. Vacancy runs higher, at up to around 8% in Poland and the wider CEE region, but absorption is enormously strong, driven by nearshoring from Western Europe. Poland recorded roughly 1.6 million square metres of gross take-up in Q1 2026, up around 40% year-on-year, with net take-up rising by approximately 75%. The vacancy rate stood at 7.2%, with new supply of about 650,000 square metres.

That combination matters more than either figure alone. This is not a market absorbing renewals. New leases and expansions made up a significant share of activity, which means the demand has genuine depth. The 捷克共和國 和 羅馬尼亞 have both posted strong annual take-up growth as well.

Read together, the picture is of a region with real available capacity and real competition for it.

Why Is Electricity Now a Warehouse Site-Selection Issue?

There is a newer bottleneck that has moved from a technical footnote to a genuine site-selection issue: electricity.

大多數歐洲電網的運作接近或已達到其運作上限。隨著配送中心的自動化程度日益提高，並逐步轉為電動化，它們的電力需求遠遠超過其可用的連接設備。為了確保現代化、自動化的倉庫能夠獲得足夠的電能供應，如今已視為至關重要之事項。而在一些市場，電力供應不足即決定了該地點是否能實行營運。.

For anyone planning capacity that involves automation, refrigeration, or electric vehicle charging infrastructure, power availability needs to be on the checklist alongside floor area and dock doors. It is not a detail that gets sorted out later. The same power constraint is shaping where life science manufacturers build, as we cover in 製藥業在東歐地區正在興建什麼？.

佔領者實際上要求的是什麼？

Where demand is strong, it is concentrated on a fairly specific building profile. Occupiers have consistently favoured high-specification stock: clear heights of 10 to 12 metres, strong floor loading, generous yard depth, and a design that meets environmental certification requirements.

這不僅僅是偏好的結果。現時市場上的許多動態反映了企業的轉型，而非擴張。企業正在從舊的、效率較低的建築物中遷出，轉移至真正適合自動化與能源密集型運作的倉庫。預計淨租金吸收率直到2027年才完全恢復，這正是因為部分新增租賃空間被其他地方的空置空間所抵銷。.

The practical implication: the weakest assets are becoming more exposed, and the best assets are getting taken. If your Q4 plan depends on finding well-specified space in a strong corridor at short notice, you are competing for the smallest part of the market. Browse CTP’s logistics and warehouse solutions for build-to-suit and ready-to-occupy options.

Five Questions to Answer Before Peak Season

1. 您的實際峰值容量預測是多少，不包括去年的數據，加上百分比是多少？

根據上年的預測進行的峰值規劃，是造成溢流成本的來源。.

1. 你的緩衝區在何處？物理上是怎樣的位置？

超出需求範圍的供應量是個問題，而非解決方案。.

1. 您是否擁有足夠的電網容量來支持您正在運行的設備？

如果您正在添加自動化或溫度控制功能，請在確認其他事項之前先確認電源連接。.

1. 您的緊急空間是否已經簽訂合同，或者只是在談論呢？

在銷售量創九年新低的市場，9月份的口頭協議在11月就幾乎沒有價值了。.

1. 明年會是什麼樣？

If your peak requirement is becoming structural rather than seasonal, short-term overflow arrangements are an expensive way to solve a permanent problem.

Should You Secure Warehouse Capacity Early?

市場並未陷入危機。需求持續穩定成長，中東及歐洲地區的空置率仍可控制，預計到2026年及2027年租金增長率仍可維持在可控的每年2%左右。.

But the direction of travel is clear. Supply is constrained by rising construction costs, planning restrictions, and grid capacity limits, none of which can be resolved quickly. Nearshoring continues to anchor demand in Central and Eastern Europe as production networks diversify away from Asia. And occupier surveys suggest that 47% intend to increase their footprints, against just 4% planning to reduce them.

Securing space in August costs less and gives you more choice than securing it in November. That has always been true. It is simply more true in a market where the pipeline is thinning.

高峰期之前需要額外容量嗎？ 查看供應情況 across more than 270 locations in the CTPark Network, from the North Sea to the Black Sea.

Author – CTP Research Team
Last updated  – 16 October 2026